Upgrades For Week 3 Running Back Rankings: Jonah Coleman Stepping Up

Upgrades For Week 3 Running Back Rankings: Jonah Coleman Stepping Up

Matthew Freedman compiled his favorite running back plays for fantasy football in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Published Updated

Let's get into the Week 3 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

  • Favorable betting factors and situational spots
  • Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
  • Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 3 favorites and fades.

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Week 3 Running Back Rankings (Top 24)

RankPlayer
1Jahmyr Gibbs
2Kenneth Walker
3Christian McCaffrey
4Bijan Robinson
5Derrick Henry
6Ashton Jeanty
7Jonathan Taylor
8James Cook
9Chase Brown
10Javonte Williams
11Saquon Barkley
12Omarion Hampton
13Breece Hall
14De'Von Achane
15Kyren Williams
16D'Andre Swift
17Bucky Irving
18Chuba Hubbard
19David Montgomery
20Cam Skattebo
21Jaylen Warren
22Aaron Jones
23Bhayshul Tuten
24Jeremiyah Love

Week 3 Matchup Upgrades: Jaylen Warren vs. Bengals & Tony Pollard at Giants

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Giants last year were two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

  • Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.6)
  • Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.109) and defensive rush DVOA (10.9%)

Bang a gong.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Bengals: Warren had a career-high 1,291 scrimmage yards last year, and he's roughly on pace for a similar mark this year (150 yards on 21 carries, 10 targets, extrapolates to 1,284). Warren's far from a usage all-star (69 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but he has been the No. 1 RB for the Steelers through two weeks, and he could have more work than usual if No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (toe) and No. 2 WR Michael Pittman (foot) are out. For the Bengals, DT B.J. Hill (Achilles) is uncertain after missing Week 2.

Tony Pollard (Titans) at Giants: I'm not too hot on Pollard in general. His production this season has been paltry—99 yards on 21 carries, 3 targets and a 49 Utilization Score. But the matchup is good, the Titans are relatively fresh after opening their season with two straight home games, and the Giants have a one-day rest-and-preparation deficit following their West Coast road trip for Monday Night Football. And after seeing the Titans score 20 points last week against the Eagles, I'm a little more optimistic about their offense. His floor is the basement, but I'm probably still willing to start Pollard in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week. 

Week 3 Scoring Upgrades: Kenneth Walker at Dolphins & Derrick Henry vs. Cowboys

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Chiefs are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5 points); the Ravens, No. 4  (27.75).

Upgrades warranted.

Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) at Dolphins: Walker has opened his Chiefs tenure with back-to-back top-5 positional finishes, and he's currently the No. 1 RB (26.7 fantasy points per game, 369 yards, 2 TDs on 47 carries, 16 targets and a 99 Utilization Score). Although they're on the road, the Chiefs should be fresh off two straight home games, especially compared to the Dolphins, who have just played consecutive West Coast road games. Plus, QB Patrick Mahomes tends to do well in Weeks 1-4 (20-13-1 ATS, 17.3% ROI, per Action Network), and the Dolphins could be without EDGEs Chop Robinson (concussion) and Robert Beal (hamstring).

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Cowboys (in Brazil): Before the season, I pitched Henry to Matthew Berry as one of his 2026 Ride or Die candidates. My thinking: Despite joining the team at the ancient age of 30, Henry was No. 2 in scrimmage yards (3,859) and all-purpose TDs (34) for the 2024-25 seasons. The dude is indestructible. And what do you know?! For the year, Henry enters Week 3 ranked No. 1 in TDs (4) and No. 7 in scrimmage yards (250). As a favorite, he could see exceptional usage, especially if WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) is out again, and the Cowboys could be without LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring). At Maracanã Stadium, the Ravens have an edge over the Cowboys playing on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). For the season, I have a bet that the Ravens will miss the playoffs, but I can't imagine them not beating my Cowboys this week in Rio de Janeiro. For his career, QB Lamar Jackson has been elite away from home (36-22 ATS, 20.2% ROI). 

Week 3 Home Favorite Upgrades: James Cook vs. Chargers & Bhayshul Tuten vs. Patriots

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Chargers: The Bills have three extra days of rest and are at home for their second straight game, whereas the Chargers are traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET game. On top of that, the Bills have a magnified home-field advantage against the Chargers, who are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Cook could continue to see an expanded workload without change-of-pace RB Ty Johnson (hamstring), and the Chargers could miss DT Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring). Plus, Cook is good at football (208 yards, 1 TD on 34 carries, 7 targets).

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs. Patriots: On the one hand, I haven't been too impressed with Tuten this year (150 yards, 1 TD, 55 Utilization Score). On the other hand, am I really going to thumb my nose at a dude with 15+ opportunities in both games … especially when he's a home favorite? I think not. The Jags last year had the No. 1 home-field advantage (+17.4, per NFElo), and this week they have an additional edge over the Pats, who are outside their division and on grass (vs. turf). The Pats could be without EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder), in addition to EDGE Harold Landry (undisclosed, PUP).

Week 3 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Jonah Coleman vs. Rams & Emanuel Wilson at Commanders

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Jonah Coleman (Broncos) vs. Rams: No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (hamstring) exited Week 2 early with an injury, and No. 2 RB RJ Harvey (hamstring) missed the game entirely, so the rookie Coleman had an opportunity to play as the lead back, and he was serviceable (58 yards, 1 TD on 10 carries, 3 targets). With Dobbins and Harvey both uncertain to play, Coleman might be the No. 1 waiver wire add for Week 3. The Broncos are underdogs, but fret not: HC Sean Payton as a dog is elite (62-43-2 ATS, 15.4% ROI). Plus, I like their situation spot: The Rams have traveled almost 17,000 miles so far this season (a league-worst mark), they're on a one-day rest deficit, and the Broncos are playing their second straight game at home, where they have a fully maximized advantage against the Rams, who are outside of conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). On top of that, the Rams are without … checks notes … All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett (knee, IR).

Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) at Commanders: No. 1 RB Jadarian Price (chest) exited Week 2 early, and No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet (knee, PUP) isn't walking onto the field anytime soon. The result: Wilson got significant action in a 31-7 road win (92 yards on 21 carries, 1 target). The Commanders last year were No. 29 in defensive rush SR (44.4%), and this week they could be without LB Frankie Luvu (groin) in addition to EDGE Deatrich Wise (quadriceps, PUP) and DT Jer'Zhan Newton (pectoral, IR).

Week 3 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Kaleb Johnson vs. Falcons & Quinshon Judkins vs. Panthers

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Kaleb Johnson (Packers) vs. Falcons: In the absence of No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs (Commissioner Exempt List), MarShawn Lloyd has failed to establish himself, and so Johnson, who had zero offensive snaps in Week 1, ended up leading the Packers in Week 2 in rushing (8 carries, 32 yards). While his production was paltry, it's possible he could build from there at home, where the Packers have an amplified advantage against the Falcons, who are out of division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). HC Matt LaFleur has historically done well at home (37-24 ATS, 16.3% ROI) and in Weeks 1-4 (19-11 ATS, 22.3% ROI). The Falcons won't have EDGEs Jalon Walker (knee, IR) and James Pearce (suspension) and DT Da'Shawn Hand (quadriceps, IR) on the DL, and they might additionally be without EDGE Samson Ebukam (hamstring) and DT Brandon Dorlus (hand).

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs. Panthers: There's nothing impressive about what Judkins has done this year (98 yards on 24 carries, 7 targets), but at least he's the clear No. 1 RB on the team (76 Utilization Score), and the Browns actually showed something last week in a 23-19 road win against the Buccaneers in HC Todd Monken's second game. The Browns have an amplified home-field advantage against the Panthers, who are out of conference and on grass (vs. turf). Finally, the Panthers have a multitude of DL injuries: EDGEs Patrick Jones (back) and Trevis Gipson (head) and DT Bobby Brown (back) could all be out alongside DT Tershawn Wharton (neck, PUP).

Notes

Week 3 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction

QB Favorites

QB Fades

RB Favorites

RB Fades

WR Favorites

WR Fades

TE Favorites

TE Fades

Defensive Matchups: Since the season is just two weeks old, I still rely primarily on prior defensive data.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

  • Tue AM: Publish
  • Thu AM: Refresh
  • Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
  • Sat PM: Update
  • Sun AM: Revise
  • Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Kenneth Walker
    KennethWalker
    RBKCKC
    Proj
    17.9
  2. Derrick Henry
    DerrickHenry
    RBBALBAL
    PPG
    0.0
    Proj
    19.0
  3. Jaylen Warren
    JaylenWarren
    RBPITPIT
    PPG
    0.0
    Proj
    11.2
  4. Tony Pollard
    TonyPollard
    RBTENTEN
    PPG
    0.0
    Proj
    7.8

Published Updated